Odds Are We Facing a 40% Trump Recession in 2025?
Name the game. I don’t care what game or bet it is. Do you like 40% odds? What would you gamble when it comes to a Trump recession? Your odds of matching five numbers in Fantasy 5 are .0001%, so 40% seems like excellent odds, in the wrong direction.
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Is a Trump Recession Coming?
So, if J.P. Morgan’s top economist, Bruce Kasman, puts a U.S. recession at 40%, maybe even as high as 50% by the end of this year, do you like the odds of him being right or your odds if you believe he is wrong? He’s not alone. Lawrence Summers, the Former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury and former Director of the National Economic Council, believes the chance of a Trump recession is 50%.
What if Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a “Meet the Press” interview that there are no guarantees that there won’t be a recession? Does that make you feel better or worse?
The Trump tariff war, which the Wall Street Journal dubbed “the dumbest trade war in history,” has our heads moving side-to-side faster than watching the final match at Wimbledon. Tariffs imposed on Canada one minute, Mexico the next, then President Trump backtracks. Then mentions tariffs again, then he goes golfing, then he backtracks again.
Federal employees are being fired “a la” “The Apprentice” style, then the courts say “Not so fast.” Then, they get rehired. We’ve seen major errors by DOGE, such as cutting off funding for Ebola or firing employees who handle the United States’ secret nuclear codes. Oops, bring them back.
No wonder we all have vertigo, and if a recession hits in 2025 as it’s being predicted, well, there’s no aspirin for financial vertigo. I’d say drinking might help, but with a 200% tariff threat by President Trump to the European Union, your hangover won’t be from drinking, and I don’t know what the cure is for a financial hangover.
Now you know why I keep repeating my mantra: Chaos creates political instability, which leads to financial instability. So, be prepared financially for what most likely lies ahead.
Besides the mass firings at the federal government level, trillions have been lost in the stock market in one week, destroying the possibility of anyone who was close to retiring from doing so. Even something as simple as shutting down the U.S. Department of Education has repercussions on a national level.
On social media, some have criticized me for that while they regurgitate political talking points from their favorite Republican politician, Jesse Watters or Sean Hannity. Repeating someone else’s thoughts without thinking them through and seeing all the angles doesn’t make anyone smarter.
This falls in line with my argument on why it’s wrong to attack House Minority Leader Chuck Schumer regarding the government shutdown. Jumping to conclusions is easy when you don’t have the facts. I find it hypocritical, to say the least, that there is anger with the mass firings while at the same time arguing for a government shutdown.
Here’s a simple question: Who do you think is hurt most by a federal government shutdown? In addition, if entire departments are closed, the term a kid in the candy store comes to mind with DOGE.
The fact is, if there are issues with the Department of Education, which I am sure there are with any large agency or even business, you certainly don’t fix those issues by shutting it down.
For example, one person posted a response showing how reading levels were lower over the last few years. Of course, this doesn’t take into account the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, which was definitely a factor. But I reversed the argument. What if military enrollment was down, or the reading levels of military members? Do you shut down the entire military?
What if a major business, such as Amazon or any business, is down and its sales drop 2 or 3%? Do you shut down the entire business because of that? Of course not. You look for ways to improve. The same would apply to the Department of Education.
But the Department of Education is but one example of how you have to analyze your situation to be prepared for your financial future, as a recession is looming in the distance. The effect will be felt on a national and global level. Once the federal government cuts off the states financially, those states have to make up for that loss somehow. How?
Well, raising taxes is one way, and cutting expenses or laying off employees is the other. Most likely, it’s a combination of both. If state taxes increase, there’s less money flowing. If jobs are lost, there’s less money flowing. It’s that simple.
Updated Note:
J.P. Morgan Chase increased their recession estimates up to 60%, but with the 90-day tariff pause of 30%, J.P. Morgan has lowered it to less than 50%.
So be prepared financially, and as a friend once told me, I heard a recession is coming. I decided not to participate.
Colleges and universities can purchase my bankruptcy law textbook directly from Routledge Publishing. For paralegals and students buying single copies, you can do so via Amazon Books. To access my YouTube channel, click this link. You can also listen to my podcast on Spotify.
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Please note that the information on this site does not constitute legal advice and should be considered for informational purposes only.
Updated on May 16, 2025.
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