Voting Against Self-Interest: The Economic Consequences

Here we are. Less than three months in. You look at the news, and there’s every reason to panic right now. When I first posted about this, at the time, Goldman Sachs estimated the odds of a recession at 45%, while JP Morgan put it at around 30-something percent. Those numbers have since increased significantly, with top firms now estimating a 60% chance. Which begs the question, why do people vote against their self-interests? Former President Bill Clinton’s Campaign Manager James Carville was right: it’s about the economy, stupid.

Note: By the time I edited this transcript, today, April 20, 2025, marks three months in the Trump presidency.

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So, are we heading toward a recession? I think it’s unavoidable. We haven’t yet felt the financial pinch, but it’s coming. By May or June, you’ll really see prices skyrocket. Some online companies have already added tariff surcharges.

• Liberation Day Should Be Called Tax Day

Meanwhile, President Trump is now fighting against Harvard, claiming they should be classified as a political organization to eliminate their tax-exempt status and cut off their funding. Harvard is pushing back. What does this mean? How would it affect you? All of it does. Directly and/or indirectly.

Yesterday, I saw a video of an undocumented immigrant in his car. Supposedly, everything was in order with his immigration attorney, but ICE broke the windows of his car to get inside. Lawyers are being stopped at airports and asked to hand over their phones. At this point, I’d advise lawyers and non-lawyers to send their phones and computers ahead via FedEx or another service, so there’s nothing for authorities to inspect.

UPDATE: Since I published this video and edited the transcript, there have been rumors online that the individual is not a member of ICE and was thought to be the leader of a militia. However, per the AZ Mirror, Michael “Lewis Arthur” Meyer, the founder of a group known as Veterans on Patrol. While ICE has not released details, it seems that it was a federal agent.

Are You Better Off Today….. Why Voting Matters

My question is simple: has anything improved financially? I don’t understand why someone would vote for someone who would hurt their self-interest. If you research how many recessions have been caused by Republicans versus Democrats, and how many jobs have been created by each, what do you find? You’re going to be shocked at the numbers.

So I sincerely do not understand that unless you’re part of that 1%, because otherwise, you’re voting against your own self-interest. There’s just no logic to it. Now I have been saying, and I’m going to say it again. Chaos creates political instability, which creates financial instability. We are in the midst of chaos.

We’re seeing their reactions politically, and we’re seeing the actions now financially. What would make you think this wouldn’t have happened? That we were not going to be surrounded by chaos, and there were going to be political battles where nothing gets done, but somehow, everything works in your favor? How did you not tie that in to you? At the minimum, that is being self-centered, if not naïve, if not both. And I’m being generous with my choice of words.

This is why I say chaos, political instability, financial instability, and voting against your self-interest are the consequences of what we are experiencing. Suppose you think getting rid of all the immigrants was a good idea. Fine, but the consequences are financial effects, which are not to your benefit.

While some might argue that these firings at the federal level are necessary to trim the fat, no one denies the government’s significant debt total. We do need a way out. But reverting to 1950s-style manufacturing is not the solution. Everywhere you look, money is flying out the window.

Everything in the Economy is Tied Together and Affects Us All

One telling example: applications for colleges in Canada have risen sharply among U.S. students. In all my years in education, I’ve never met anyone planning to study in Canada. So why now? The answer is obvious. And when they go, what do they take with them? Their money.

Just two or three weeks ago, I wrote a blog and made a video estimating tourism losses at around $44 billion. Now, those numbers have ballooned to $100 billion. With major events like the Ryder Cup and the Olympics to be held in Los Angeles, this could lead to even greater financial losses.

It gets better, now the Trump Administration has denied a work visa to a Mexican band known as “Los Alegres.” Why? Because the Trump administration claims they support narcos based on their lyrics. I’ll skip the First Amendment issues and just ask how canceling a multi-month tour helps out the local economy? Let’s see what happens with Coachella now and next time around.

On top of this, college students are now being targeted. For instance, if they’ve written something generic in a school newspaper, plainclothes officials are reportedly picking them up off the street, and it takes days to figure out where they are. Exactly what happened to Tufts’ doctoral student Rumeysa Ozturk.

The Financial Impact of Education Will Affect the States and Local Economies

Some universities, like FIU in Miami, have already seen students affected—five students, if I recall correctly. Is this good for the economy? It certainly isn’t. Foreign students contribute somewhere around $40 to $50 billion to the economy. Combine that with $100 billion in tourism losses, and you’re looking at $150 billion gone in an instant.

This is why I keep saying: we need to be prepared. Whether or not you call it a tax, it’s essentially a tax—nickel-and-diming people to death. States will lose revenue, too. For example, school districts receive about 11% of their funding from the Department of Education. That’s an 11% hole to fill, give or take, depending on the area.

Let’s consider the impact on every district if students are leaving for another country or being forced out. I’ve taught at universities with many students on visas. When they’re here, they rent places, buy cars, and spend money—all of which contributes to the economy. If they leave, that economic activity disappears. Simply, they take their dollars with them.

Did you not see the writing on the wall? Chaos and efficiency cannot coexist—it’s contradictory by definition. Yet, some believed we wouldn’t face chaos this time around. Did you really think prices would drop, or that the cost of eggs would stabilize? Once prices rise, they rarely come back down, leading to long-term effects.

This is why voting against self-interest is so damaging. If you don’t consider how policies affect you personally, you end up voting based on party loyalty rather than the quality of the candidate. People often claim they’re not sheep, that they’re wolves or leaders, and they have the “tough” memes on social media or the T-shirt. But then they vote for whoever their party puts forward without deeper analysis. Guess what? That makes you a sheep. There’s no other logical explanation if you vote against your self-interests.

Would you apply this logic to other areas of life? Would you choose a dentist based solely on their political affiliation, even if they’re not skilled? Of course not—you’d pick the best dentist, regardless of their label. The same goes for lawyers.

In a custody case, you wouldn’t hire someone just because you share political views; you’d hire the best lawyer to ensure you see your kids again. The same principle should apply to voting. It’s not about party loyalty—it’s about choosing the best candidate for the job.

Voting against self-interest is baffling, if not insane. You’d never run your household or business the way the country is being run right now. You know chaos doesn’t work. Take the example of firings. I recently read about a woman who had worked for the federal government since her 20s, was just months away from full pension and retirement, and was fired. Her pension, which should have been $6,000 a month, was slashed to $3,000 because of DOGE, despite her consistently excellent performance reviews.

Now, where does she find the other $3,000? Budget cuts? Even if I gave up my car, camper, and golf membership, I would still fall $2,000 short. In this case, the former federal employee is also disabled, so that might make it even more difficult to find a job.

So what’s property next for her? Selling her house? Even then, if someone like me does research and learns about her circumstances, it’s a low-ball offer. These ripple effects highlight the impossible task of recovering from such a loss.

Chances are, most people cannot make up $3,000 more in monthly income quickly, especially not through a part-time job or a side hustle. It’s heartbreaking. We’re now at a tipping point, staring down the possibility of a recession, praying it doesn’t lead to something even worse.

And yet, here we are—because people voted against their own self-interest. The information was all there. Was this a truthful person? If you know someone isn’t truthful, why believe anything else they say? It’s like the old legal question: “Were you lying then, or are you lying now?” Without honesty, why trust claims about the price of eggs dropping, or that cats and dogs are being eaten, or that all economic issues will be resolved?

We are way past DOGE taking a chainsaw to the federal government. It’s grenades. The damage is beyond comprehension. Take the case Kilmar Abrego Garcia. The Trump administration is clearly ignoring a court order. That’s a constitutional crisis. When the executive branch refuses to enforce the law, it undermines the very foundation of governance. Yet, some dismiss it as if it’s nothing.

Of course, since it’s always something new with the Trump administration, before I even finish editing this blog, President Trump posted a fake photo of MS-13 tattoos on Abrego-Garcia’s hand. Regardless of your political beliefs, from an economic perspective, what do you think crosses the mind of other countries when they see the President of the United States posting fake photos online and ranting on Easter?

I don’t know how far this will go, when it will end, or how long the long-term effects will last. Nobody does. Based on history, common sense, and educated guesses, the economic impact could easily stretch over a decade.

I’m not a doom-and-gloom person, but I believe this won’t end well, whether Trump stays in office or is impeached. It’s the lesser of two evils, and both are pretty grim. Financial consequences could be severe.

Reacting to a Recession

Over the years, we’ve faced ups and downs—fuel crises in the 1970s, skyrocketing interest rates during Reagan’s administration in the 1980s, and the Great Recession. We’ve always managed to get through it somehow. But this time, we’re in uncharted territory. The only advice I can offer is to be as prepared as possible, whatever that means for your unique situation.

People are holding back—no vacations, no big spending. It’s a sit-back-and-wait attitude, which is just a milder form of chaos. For example, if your refrigerator breaks, instead of spending $2,000 on a new one, you might opt for a $150 repair and ride it out. That’s where we are now. Uncertainty causes people to hold back. That’s not good for the economy.

My concern is being prepared to ride out the wave. I’ve been thinking about making a video in the next few months about stopping payments to creditors, saving that money, and dealing with lawsuits later. Because unfortunately, I know that’s going to happen. It’s about living for the moment and adapting to the chaos. We’ll see how things unfold.

Next time, vote for your self-interest. It’s really that simple. Ask yourself: Is this presidential candidate going to improve the economy in a way that benefits you, or will they make it worse? Will they create chaos, leading to political instability and financial instability? If the answer is yes, then that probably shouldn’t be your candidate, even if you share the same label, category, or party affiliation.

Voting for your party over your country and your own self-interest is, for lack of a better term, idiotic. I’m not going to cut off my nose to spite my face. I want the best person in office—someone who will ensure the economy thrives, the country runs smoothly, and life improves for everyone. Who they are, what they look like, or what party they belong to doesn’t matter to me. What matters is that they get the job done, and right now, we’re not seeing that.

When you go to the voting booths, think about it like this: would you choose a dentist, lawyer, plumber, landscaper, or teacher for your kids based solely on their political affiliation, even if they’re not the best at their job? Of course not. You’d pick the most qualified person. The same logic should apply to voting. And remember, not voting is essentially like voting for the wrong candidate.

Keep this in mind as we face the consequences of trillions lost in the stock market—over $6 trillion, with an average of $8,000 lost in 401(k)s. Prices are rising, and household expenses could increase by $2,500 to $4,000 per year.

 Ask yourself: Why did you vote for this person again? What was your reasoning? Reflect on that as we buckle up for what’s ahead.

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Disclaimer:

Please note that this transcript was edited for clarity. The transcription may contain inaccuracies or errors due to the limitations of transcription software and the quality of the audio. I have made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the transcription, but I cannot guarantee it.

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the host(s) and guest(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any agency, organization, employer, or company. Any content provided by our host(s) and/or guest(s) is of their opinion and is not intended to malign any religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual, or anyone or anything.