Impacts of the Ongoing Trade War: What to Expect

Below is a summary of my podcast and YouTube discussing the ongoing trade war.

Key Points

• The Trump trade war continues. Ford estimates a potential $1.5 billion loss due to the ineffective tariffs, highlighting the unrealistic nature of simply replacing lost manufacturing jobs.
• Without major changes and fast, come June, we could start experiencing product shortages and drastic changes, possibly worse than COVID-related disruptions.
• The recent arbitrary lowering of tariffs on China to 30% with a 90-day pause is seen as prolonging financial uncertainty.
• Assess your own situation and prepare for potential shortages and economic disruptions.

Trade Wars, Non-Existent Trade Deals, and a New Pope

It seems our heads are spinning 24/7. We have a new Pope, Robert Francis Prevost, Pope Leo XIV. He was born in Chicago, but resided in Latin America for most of his life. Of course, I knew that President Trump would somehow take credit for this, and he did. I even posted my prediction.

Listen to this podcast.

We now have the non-existent trade agreement between the United States and Britain. Simply, “concepts of a plan.” But what I want to talk about today is the impact we’re currently feeling from the tariff war.  We’re starting to see the consequences, with some ships arriving half empty and others being turned back. Everyone’s trying to figure out how to adjust.

• Why the U.S.-Britain Trade Deal is Not What You Think

Companies like Ford aren’t even providing guidance because they’re so uncertain about what’s happening. Ford estimates they might lose $1.5 billion, which proves how ineffective these tariffs are and how the trade war causes more problems than solutions. The idea of just creating manufacturing jobs to compensate isn’t realistic; it doesn’t work that way.

My real concern is June, which is just around the corner. If things don’t change by the beginning of June, we’ll start to notice a lack of products. I think the end of June is a critical point, and if things remain the same, we could see drastic changes, possibly worse than what we experienced during COVID. People might not have fully believed in COVID, but this situation feels different. While COVID might have brought fear, this feels like it will bring anger and confusion, but the result is the same: empty shelves.

That’s why I believe this situation is like a Band-Aid. It’s going to hurt, no doubt. The question is whether we rip it off quickly or slowly. This extends across the board to all the issues this country is facing, whether financial or political, like Kilmar Obrego-Garcia and his due process rights stripped from him. Even if he comes back tomorrow, the long-term psychological effects on him and his wife will be significant. This is how people’s lives are being played with, and it’s no different financially.

Even Trump supporters won’t be able to deny the impact in June when the shelves start emptying. The reason for the shortages will be very different from what we saw during COVID. Unfortunately, and it sounds terrible, but I believe that regardless of what happens with President Trump, whether he gets impeached or not, this isn’t going to end well. The trade war is but one spoke in the wheel.

If he does get impeached, how will his supporters react? Could we see something worse than the January 6^th insurrection? And if President Trump remains in office for his full term, that won’t be good for the economy either. At this point, we can’t deny the transparent corruption taking place in his administration, whether it’s his cryptocurrency meme coin or a free plane from Qatar. Crony capitalism. They profit while we are being asked to make sacrifices for the greater good.

So, I think we’re at a point where we need to just rip off the Band-Aid and deal with the pain, rather than prolonging it. My main concern is June, as it seems like that’s when things will hit the fan, and the big question is how people will react.

Now, I heard this morning that President Trump is considering reducing tariffs by 80%, but even then, it would still be a significant tariff. What he says and what he does are often different, so I continue to advise being prepared. But this on-again off off-again, like a toxic relationship, isn’t good for anyone involved.

• Toxic Relationships vs. Toxic Economy: Same Difference

Note: Since this transcript was edited. President Trump has arbitrarily lowered the tariffs on China to 30% with a 90-day pause, which only continues the financial uncertainty.

For me, being prepared means something different for everyone. For example, in my case, I’m getting my property appraised. It’s not an expense I want, but I’m thinking ahead to the possibility of FEMA not being around this year. The GOP budget already included $0.00 for FEMA funds. I’ve been through insurance issues before, and if my house gets damaged again, I want to have an appraisal to argue its worth if the insurance company tries to lowball me.

• Trump Denies North Carolina FEMA
• FEMA vs SBA: Know Your Disaster Aid Options
• Protect Your Rights: Act of God in Natural Disasters

Now, this type of preparation is separate from the tariff situation, but I’ve consistently said that my financial preparation will be different from others. You need to assess your situation and figure out how to adapt. What if there are shortages? What do you need? Now might not be the time for travel or buying a new car. With travel, I’m not even referring to the issues of U.S. citizens being stopped at Customs just because the Trump administration doesn’t like their political leanings.

• Burner Phones: U.S. Customs and Border Protection

I recommend you focus on what you need to prepare. Write everything down and revisit it over a few days to make sure you cover all the angles. Keep in mind that the effects of all this are ongoing.

Truckers will have less to deliver with half-empty shipping containers and empty ports. This creates a snowball effect. That’s why being prepared in the next six weeks before the end of June is crucial.

Ask yourself what you need to do to be ready for whatever comes. We should always think this way, but it’s especially important now.

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