States at Risk During Red Rural Recession
Billionaire entrepreneur and long-time Shark Tank co-host Mark Cuban, soon stepping away from the show, has issued a stark warning about what he calls the “Red Rural Recession.” A perfect storm of federal funding cuts and political choices could trigger an economic meltdown in rural, Republican-leaning states.
Government Cuts Could Accelerate a Red Rural Recession
Cuban points to massive federal budget cuts, cancelled grants, and terminated contracts, which together threaten the financial backbone of many rural communities.
Take West Virginia, where federal dollars account for nearly 50% of the state’s budget. One recent cut eliminated $500 million in food bank support, and in a single small town, 124 federal workers were laid off. Situations like these beg the question: Why do so many vote against their own economic interests?
Agricultural States Under Pressure
Kansas, whose economy depends heavily on agriculture, took its hit during President Trump’s first term with the trade wars, which were devastating for the farming industry. Federal bailouts saved the day.
Other farm-reliant states like Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota which count on federal subsidies to stabilize farming income, face the same issues.
Health, Climate, and Disaster Response Increases Financial Risk
In Mississippi, the outlook isn’t much better. Not only is the state vulnerable because of agriculture, but anticipated cuts to Medicaid because of the “Big Beautiful Bill” are a lifeline for low-income rural families.
Louisiana, still suffering from repeated natural disasters, could suffer further if proposed cuts to FEMA go through. In a state where climate change regularly brings hurricanes and floods, that safety net could be the difference between recovery and financial ruin. The Trump administration has stated its plan to phase out FEMA by the end of this year.
States Facing the Red Rural Recession
According to Cuban, the following states face the highest risk in the Red Rural Recession:
Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia.
In my view, the U.S. economy is heading toward a long-term financial transformation unlike anything we’ve seen before. Federal funding cuts are only one pressure point in a rapidly shifting financial landscape. Add to that the disruptive scary rise of AI and the shrinking job market, including mass deportation of the workforce, and the need for economic reinvention becomes impossible to ignore.
The End for Food for Peace
The New York Times is reporting the end of “Food for Peace,” a program that delivers surplus American wheat worldwide, thanks to DOGE and the Trump administration. This program dates back to President Eisenhower.
For Kansas, agriculture is 50% of the economy, and for the high plains region, 80% voted for President Trump. I’ve been talking about the coming “red rural recession” that will hit red states hard, and this is exactly the kind of policy that fuels it.
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Please note that the information on this site does not constitute legal advice and should be considered for informational purposes only.
Updated on July 7, 2025, to reference that the Food for Peace program is being cancelled.
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