Economic News Update: Tariffs, Recession Signals, and More
Welcome to the latest economic news, a regularly updated series focusing on key headlines and summaries. From the increase in consumer goods to corporate reaction, each post provides the latest developments tied to the Trump-era tariff policy and its ongoing ripple effects. Stay informed without the noise as we enter a new era of global economics that puts pressure on consumers, corporations, and policymakers alike.
Consumers Are Worried
I start Economic News with President Trump’s erratic tariff policy that continues to stir economic uncertainty. As prices quietly rise, concern is spreading beyond U.S. borders. In a survey of 1,005 employees conducted by Zety, a resume template company, 78% said these tariffs will make it harder to manage personal debt. Trade wars aren’t just about global markets, it’s about individual wallets too.
In another poll from Yahoo Finance/Marist Poll, approximately 80% of Americans are concerned about the economy and the impact of President Trump’s tariffs. Of course, they are holding back on expenses as well. Now you know why I compare my unfinished bird pond to the economy.
The 100% Recession Guaranteed Prediction or Your Money Back
Is it just me, or is the economy feeling sluggish? Is there a recession signal for which results are guaranteed? Can we find one brutally honest indicator of a recession record so clean, that you’d think it came with a notarized affidavit? Can we skip the crystal balls, the economic tea leaves, and AI forecasts? It seems easier to predict the landfall of a hurricane one week in advance than it is to predict a recession.
Economists and financial firms seem to agree that a recession is possible before the end of the year, but the odds vary. So, is there an indicator to peg the recession at 100%? Bravos Research believes there is. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey has the recession signal with a perfect record, and it is flashing red!
Specifically, when 30% or more of Americans expect fewer jobs to be available six months from now, a recession either begins shortly afterward or is already in motion.
This indicator has been perfect dating back to 1980. Take a wild guess what the indicator is right now. Not the type of economic news I want to post, but we have to be prepared! Speaking of being prepared, maybe being a liberal prepper is a good thing.
No Economist!!
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has his own economic news: “There is no economist anywhere, without a strong political agenda, who is saying that this bill is a positive for the economy. And the overwhelming view is that it is probably going to make the economy worse.”
Source: Interview with ABC News’s George Stephanopoulos on Sunday on “This Week.”
Sin City isn’t Sinning as Much
What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas. The problem is that not much is happening in Vegas. Why? International tourism is down, resulting in layoffs at major resorts according to Moneywise. Exactly what I predicted as Customs Border Patrol checks people’s phones, and social media posts, including those of U.S. citizens, and even lawyers! We can all survive negative economic news, but violation of our civil rights, well, that’s another thing and that also won’t end well.
The Tariff Deadline is Here! Now What?
President Trump has set a July 9th deadline for the next phase of tariff enforcement, although extensions have become the norm, leaving me, you, and everyone else guessing as to what happens next. For now, it’s a waiting game. Or as they say on TV: stay tuned.
There’s More Than One Way to Destroy the U.S. Economy
I’ve blogged several times about isolationism and the decline of tourism and its effect on the economy. NBC is reporting that foreign travel to the U.S is down 10%. In this blog, as you can see, I referenced that major resorts in Las Vegas are laying off employees. Oxford Economics estimates a $8.5 billion loss in foreign travel. The chaos of the tariffs could also lead to another $90 billion in losses from international tourism boycotts of the US.
Bookings for LGBTQ travel-friendly places down 66% decline among Canadian users and a 32% decline among Europeans. I mentioned previously how Naples, FL, and South Florida in general would suffer drastic declines in tourism revenue, and now I see the same happening with Key West, which is LGBTQ friendly. You can add South Beach in Miami as well to that list.
Not surprisingly, Blue-state reservations increased 22%, while red-state reservations declined 9%. This just adds to the Red Rural Recession. One important key is that travel is up worldwide, just not in the U.S.
The Trump Tariffs Now with a Side of International Bromance!
I thought tariffs were about financial equality? President Trump has claimed that all these countries have been ripping off the U.S. for decades. But now it seems that tariffs can be imposed on other countries if President Trump is not satisfied with how coup buddies are being treated. Yes, you read that correctly.
The former President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, is facing prosecution for having his own coup. I wonder where he got that idea from. President Trump now said Brazil can face a 50% tariff because of the prosecution. So let me make this simple.
If I want Brazilian coffee, I have to pay 50% more for it because President Trump, who is not a lawyer and also not an expert on Brazilian prosecution laws, and a law degree from Trump University doesn’t count, isn’t happy with the prosecution of his coup buddy. “Sound” economic policy, right?
Of course, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva responded by saying there will be 50% reciprocal tariffs. Now you know why I say doubling down doesn’t work, if the other party triples down. It is Thursday. TACO Thursday?
The National Review Slams the Trump Tariffs
The National Review is a conservative media outlet, but they had a brutal takedown of President Trump and his tariff policies. For a second, I believed I was reading one of my own blogs.
The National Review not only points out that a Reagan and Trump-appointed judge ruled that the tariffs were illegal, but even states that the “Wall Street mantra “TACO” — Trump Always Chickens Out — seems to be conventional wisdom now.”
The National Review even slams President Trump for his letter to former Brazilian President Lula da Silva, where it seems a 50% tariff is being imposed because of a “witch hunt” against former President Jair Bolsonaro.
I criticized this and stated consumers are now paying more for goods from Brazil because President Trump’s coup buddy is facing prosecution. By the way, the U.S. has a trade surplus with Brazil, so there shouldn’t be any tariffs.
Of course, President Lula da Silva responded to President Trump:
“In view of the public statement by the American president Donald Trump presented on a social network this Wednesday afternoon (9), it is important to emphasize: Brazil is a sovereign country with independent institutions that will not accept being tutored by anyone. The judicial process against those who planned the coup d’état is the sole responsibility of the Brazilian Judiciary and, therefore, is not subject to any kind of interference or threat that undermines the independence of national institutions.
In the context of digital platforms, Brazilian society rejects content involving hate, racism, child pornography, scams, fraud, and speech against human rights and democratic freedom. In Brazil, freedom of expression is not to be confused with aggression or violent practices. To operate in our country, all national and foreign companies are subject to Brazilian legislation.
It is false information, in the case of the commercial relationship between Brazil and the United States, regarding the alleged American deficit. Statistics from the United States government itself confirm a surplus of that country in the trade of goods and services with Brazil in the amount of 410 billion dollars over the last 15 years. In this sense, any measure to increase tariffs unilaterally will be responded to in light of Brazil’s Law of Economic Reciprocity. The respect and intransigent defense of the interests of the Brazilian people are the values that guide our relationship with the world.”
Since there are still endless people who believe consumers do not ultimately pay the price on tariffs, the National Review disagrees. “That doesn’t make the tariffs any less crazy. He is sending these letters to foreign leaders as though they are the ones who pay tariffs. Trump should be sending all of these to the American people, as they are the ones who would bear the burden of these tax hikes.”
It’s On Like Donkey Kong
Sorry, but I’ve gone way too long without an Eighties reference. But, back to business. Canada is facing a 35% tariff come August 1st, the second extension of “Liberation Day.” What’s the beef with Canada? Forty-three pounds of fentanyl that crossed into the U.S. Here’s something to think about: isn’t it Customs Border Patrol’s failure that 43 lbs. of fentanyl got in?
Now, how is Canada likely to respond? Well, we have been down this road before, so they will react with retaliatory tariffs. How many times have I now said you can’t double down with the other side triples down?
These 35% tariffs are separate from the 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, 25% tariffs on autos, and the new 50% tax on copper.
Tariff Turmoil and the Toxic Tango of the U.S. Economy
As I’ve emphasized countless times on Bankruptcy.blog and in my YouTube videos: chaos breeds political instability, which snowballs into financial instability. It’s why so many companies remain paralyzed, unsure how to respond to the constantly shifting terrain of Trump-era tariffs. And yes, go ahead and scroll up to my bird pond example, it still holds water.)
Bloomberg cuts straight through the fog in a recent article: since “Liberation Day,” aka the day we were liberated from our money, President Trump has reversed his tariff stance 29 times. That’s more flip-flops than a sunburned tourist hobbling down Duval Street in Key West wearing sandals. And no, that’s not policy, it’s economic whiplash severe enough to make a personal injury attorney salivate.
No wonder corporate America feels trapped in financial purgatory. It’s why I keep comparing the U.S. economy to a toxic relationship: it’s hot, it’s cold, it’s back, it’s gone. And like any toxic dynamic, it always ends the same. Someone walks away broke, broken, or both.
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Economic News will be updated daily as new information becomes available.
Please note that the information on this site does not constitute legal advice and should be considered for informational purposes only.
Updated on July 12, 2025.
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