U.S. Economic Pulse: July 2025 Insights
What is going on this week with the U.S. economy? This U.S. economic pulse in July 2025 is a collision of data, drama, and déjà vu. With June’s Consumer Price Index set to drop, analysts are bracing for signs that tariffs, once dismissed as political theater, is sneaking into core inflation.
Meanwhile, trade negotiations are racing against Trump’s August 1 tariff ultimatum, except, of course, for Canada and Mexico, which were arbitrarily imposed at a 30%. But why stop there? And Brazil? Despite a trade surplus, the U.S. slapped a 50% tariff, allegedly to pressure legal action against Bolsonaro. Economic policy by vendetta? Are we on track for a rerun of TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out)? Time will tell.
The Economic Pulse for July Just Went Skipped a Beat
Inflation picked up steam in June, jumping to 2.7%, its highest level since February, up from May’s 2.4%, per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Predictably, President Trump blames Fed Chair Jerome Powell (or, as he puts it, “too late” Powell) and is calling for a dramatic 3-point rate cut. Sounds great on paper, like printing more cash and handing it out with confetti, but the fallout is an economic hangover. You don’t have to dig too deep into history to know the consequences.
Just five years ago, during the COVID-19 era, interest rates plunged to “stimulate” the economy. Monthly payments dropped. Homes, in theory, became more affordable. In reality, buyers stormed the market, prices skyrocketed, and affordability vanished, just like our democracy is.
Now we’re seeing echoes of that in real time. If this administration doesn’t learn from history, or as I like to call it, the Law of Unintended Consequences, it will be too late. And no, I’m not talking about Powell.
Your New Ride is Getting More Expensive
Meanwhile, let’s talk car loans. Edmunds just dropped some chilling stats on new car loans: nearly 20% now carry monthly payments over $1,000, and 22% stretch across 84-month terms, a record high!
I’ve long considered these trends unsustainable. Personally, I opted for a used Ford F250 because a $90,000 price tag on something that mostly sits in the driveway borders on financial self-sabotage. When Hurricane Helene totaled my wife’s car, that hurt economically, knowing it meant more debt, longer terms, and fewer choices.
So as the economic pulse for July 2025 quickens, I’ll continue to update this post accordingly.
The Big Beautiful Bill Changes Education for Those Who Can’t Afford It
The newly passed “Big Beautiful Bill” imposes strict limits on federal student loan borrowing, $50,000 annually and $200,000 total, for graduate and professional programs like medical and law school. The problem? Education typically costs far more than that.
For many qualified students, especially those from working- or middle-class families, these caps may render medical school financially inaccessible, forcing some to withdraw and deterring others from applying altogether.
Supporters of the Big Beautiful Bill, led by Republicans in control of the House and Senate, argue that it will reduce the cost of education. I disagree. Slashing student loan availability doesn’t fix institutional pricing; it forces universities to slash budgets, likely through mass layoffs.
Meanwhile, to offset lost revenue, schools will hike housing and tuition costs. The irony? Those already able to afford it will be asked to pay more. Those who can’t will simply be shut out. Now you know why I’ve talked about the “Toolbelt Generation.”
Tomato Tax and Alligator Alcatraz: Welcome to the Red-State Recession
How do you like your tomatoes? More expensive? Then your wish has been granted. The Trump administration has imposed a 17% tariff on fresh tomatoes from Mexico, which is 70% of U.S. tomato consumption. This ends a long-standing agricultural export agreement.
Farm bankruptcies have already surpassed the total for all of 2024. The termination of Food for Peace, a decades-old program that helped unload surplus wheat through foreign sales, is being canceled. This destroys agriculture-dependent states like Kansas, whose economy is nearly 50% agricultural.
At the same time, mass deportations have caused labor shortages as undocumented workers avoid fields for fear of being detained and sent to harsh and inhumane facilities like “Alligator Alcatraz.”
Ironically, rural communities overwhelmingly support President Trump, yet they are facing the harshest consequences of his policy agenda. The result? What I’ve previously called the “red rural recession.”
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Last updated on July 16, 2025.
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