Economic Pulse: Tariff Losses for Small and Large Businesses
As the nation sweats through peak summer heat, the economic pulse is running cold in key sectors as fiscal conservatism is beginning to sound like going broke.
We start this week’s Economic Pulse with independent grocers.
Feeling the Weight of the Big Beautiful Bill
The Big Beautiful Bill was supposed to lighten the load with debt, but the effects are the opposite. Who is next in line to feel the economic pinch? With the GOP in charge of the House, Senate, and White House, the GOP’s sweeping cuts to federal nutrition programs like SNAP will affect the small grocer and the mom-and-pop operations.
These independent grocery stores overwhelmingly serve rural communities where food aid recipients make up the bulk of local grocers’ customers. Of course, rural areas are typically “red,” meaning they vote Republican, which is the political irony since they will be the most affected by Trump’s policies, and are likely to suffer from the “red rural recession.”
So even in the scorching heat of summer, we see the snowball effect as possible store closures and layoffs loom. Every layoff is one more bite of the recession apple.
Electric Shock Weakens the Economic Pulse
Speaking of the scorching heat of summer, as the heat dome gets ready to blanket parts of the United States, federal subsidies for green energy are vanishing, and households will be feeling the electric shock, literally. The “Big Beautiful Bill” slashes support for renewables like solar and wind, leaving families to face rising electricity costs that could top $500 annually in some states.
With solar startup bankruptcies mounting and installation costs still sky-high, energy independence remains a mirage for many, especially in hurricane-prone regions. And as inflation grips groceries, rent, and insurance, this electric squeeze hits where it hurts most, your wallet. Here’s a list of what each state could see their average electricity bill increase to.
Tariff Math: Why Stellantis Lost Billions and Why You’re Paying for It!
Stellantis, the automaker behind Jeep and Ram, is staring down a $2.68 billion loss, and much of it can be traced to the Trump tariffs. Aluminum supplier Alcoa, for example, is already absorbing $120 million in tariffs just this quarter. And here’s where the confusion creeps in.
Yes, when the White House touts tariff revenues on social media, they’re technically correct. But those numbers are just part of the story. Tariffs are a tax paid by importers, companies like Alcoa. To avoid bleeding cash, Alcoa adds that $120 million to the price of the aluminum they sell to carmakers. Stellantis, in turn, adds that cost to the vehicles they manufacture. And guess who gets stuck with the final price bump? You.
So when you hear about billions in tariff collections, remember: those aren’t penalties levied on foreign governments. They’re taxes are quietly woven into your next purchase, whether it’s a Jeep, a six-pack of soda, but since we are all adults, beer, or a new appliance.
General Motors Feels the Tariff Pain
There’s House of Pain and “Jump Around,” and then there’s tariff pain. Automaker giant GM is feeling the latter, and there’s no reason for them to jump around with excitement. GM has $1 billion less in its pocket thanks to the Trump tariffs.
While GM beat earnings expectations, they have suffered a 2% dip in sales to $47 billion, as well as $1.9 billion in quarterly profits, compared to $2.9 billion in the same period last year. The tariff uncertainty led GM to not publish its annual guidance last quarter.
GM plans to invest $4 billion in U.S. manufacturing plants in order to offset the cost of imports, as well as increase production capacity. Which sounds like a great idea, right? Build in America and buy American? Well, who is taking the hit financially in the years it will take them to build these manufacturing plants? Plus, a new democratic president can just undo the tariffs with one quick use of “autopen.”
Plus, this isn’t growth! It’s not being proactive, but reactive to the tariffs as they take a $5 billion hit in the meantime, plus spending another $ 4 billion along the way!
In an interview with Fortune Magazine, Bernstein senior analyst Daniel Roeska summed it up nicely: “There are only two people who can pay for [tariffs]: either the shareholders or the consumer… prices for cars are going to push up in the second half. And in the end, there’s going to be some sharing between those two halves. And so our view has been and continues to be that prices for cars are going to push up in the second half.”
Cancer-Causing Windmills and the $4.9B Loan That Didn’t Make It
Just as I highlighted earlier in this post on how the Big Beautiful Bill slashed solar energy tax breaks, the Energy Department has now pulled the plug on a $4.9 billion loan guarantee under the Biden administration for the Grain Belt Express, a proposed $11 billion transmission line that was to carry Kansas wind energy to Indiana. So, guess what, Indiana, your utility bill isn’t going to get any smaller.
The move aligns with the Trump administration’s broader hostility toward renewables. Maybe because President Trump claims that windmill noise causes cancer. Governor Abbott from Texas is a Republican. I’ve driven through, camped, and ridden my motorcycle numerous times through Texas. I’ve seen endless fields of windmills. Someone should tell Governor Abbott about the “cancer thing.”
Orange Juice and Coffee Just Got More Expensive
I’ve written and posted YouTube videos on how Brazil has been hit with tariffs simply because of a bromance between former President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, and President Trump. Bolsonaro is being prosecuted for an insurrection. Because of that, President Trump imposed the tariff. That doesn’t make for good economic policy.
But this time I’m not focused on coffee or other imports from Brazil, but orange juice. Johanna Foods, a major New Jersey-based juice manufacturer, has filed suit against the Trump administration over proposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports.
Brazil supplies more than 50% of U.S. orange juice and 80% globally. The company provides more than 75% of orange juice through private labels and is stocked with major grocers like Aldi, Walmart, Sam’s Club, Wegman’s, Safeway, and Albertsons.
Johanna Foods predicts the tariffs would cost them $70 million, layoffs, and a 25% markup for consumers. At this point, as many still believe that tariffs are good for the economy, just ask yourself one question: What has gotten cheaper through tariffs?
Economic Pulse updates daily, so check back often to stay informed with the latest shifts in financial trends and policy.
Volkswagen Also Rattled by U.S. Tariffs
Volkswagen reports a $1.5 billion loss in the first half of 2025, largely attributed to U.S. auto tariffs now totaling 27.5%. Sales in the U.S. dropped by 16%. GM, Stellantis, and Tesla echoed similar concerns, with billions in losses in the second quarter.
Because tariffs serve as a tax passed on to consumers, car owners may opt to keep their vehicles for a longer period of time. I blogged about this issue as it was referred to as a “Cubanized economy.”
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Updated on July 25, 2025.
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