The Trump Tariffs Are Illegal, But For How long?
The U.S. Supreme Court will decide the legality of the Trump administration’s sweeping tariffs, leaving the fate of the American consumer, the U.S. economy and the global supply chain hanging in the balance and creating economic uncertainty that your personal finances are already reflecting.
By Alexander Hernandez, J.D., Professor, and Author of Consumer Bankruptcy Law (Routledge).
Commentary and Analysis
The Economic Seesaw: Your Checking Account Doesn’t Lie
An appellate court has ruled that many of President Trump’s tariffs are illegal, and as the economic seesaw continues, are you feeling liberated yet? I believe I am, at least for now.
Do you feel liberated? It’s a simple yet powerful question, especially when you consider the current economic climate. A recent report from Moody’s top analyst, Mark Zandi, suggests that states representing nearly one-third of the country’s GDP are either in or at high risk of a recession. This economic pain is already widespread.
Recession Risks: The Third of the Country Already in Trouble
While my home state, Florida, along with Texas, is still categorized as “growing” in Zandi’s report, its growth is slowing dramatically. We are seeing the ripple effects of the tariff policies: the price of orange juice is at an all-time high, and even legal agricultural workers with H-2A visas aren’t showing up. This isn’t just local pain; tariffs and restrictive immigration policies as the primary cause of the nationwide economic drag.
But despite all of this, and all the economic signs pointing in the wrong direction, I feel liberated. Why? Because the truth is finally sinking in for a lot of people. The economics are undeniable, and at the end of the day, this affects everyone.
Debunking the Tariff Myth
A popular lie, if not misinformation or disinformation, on social media is that consumers don’t pay for tariffs. Simply not true! I always ask a simple question: If you own a business and it costs you $10 to import a product, would you sell it for $10 if tariffs added an additional $1 to your costs? Of course not. You’d sell it for $11 to make a profit. It’s a basic business principle.
If you choose to do otherwise, it won’t be long before you schedule your first consultation with a bankruptcy lawyer.
Another flawed argument I see is that large corporations should “eat the tariffs.” For how long can and should a large corporation operate at a loss?
A company’s board of directors has a legal and ethical obligation to make money for its shareholders. If they absorb the cost of tariffs, they’re losing money, shareholders lose money, and eventually, that board is gone. They will get voted out. The idea that this is a sustainable business model is just not grounded in reality.
Tariffs and other economic policies, such as immigration, have a cascading, or “snowball,” effect. We’re seeing it in states that rely on tourism. Las Vegas is getting hammered with a low occupancy rate. New York and Southwest Florida, which depend on Canadian visitors, are feeling the effects of fewer tourists. People are holding onto their money or choosing to go elsewhere, or go nowhere at all.
But it’s not just tourism. The shortage of agricultural workers in my state means higher prices for oranges, and countries like Canada aren’t skipping Florida when it comes to their orange juice. These are real, tangible effects that reach all the way down to your local grocery store.
Your Wallet Doesn’t Care About Politics
This is the part that people seem to be skipping over: the economy doesn’t care about your politics. You can be on the right or the left, a supporter or a critic, it doesn’t matter. You’re going to pay the exact same price for that cup of coffee, that TV, or that banana that your political opposite is paying for. Ignorance may be bliss, but your bank account will disagree with you.
In 2016, Miami was an outlier. My income dropped like a bowling ball falling off a table. The only explanation that made sense came from an immigration attorney who told me his clients (immigrants) were used to radical shifts in government policy and were holding onto their money. They knew a boom-and-bust cycle when they saw one, and they held back on spending. Back then, it felt like Miami was alone in its struggles.
That’s not the case anymore. The economic uncertainty we’re seeing today is widespread. We’re all in this together, and that’s why I feel liberated, because the division I can’t stand or understand is finally being broken down by a shared economic reality. But again, just understand the us-versus-them mentality means nothing to the grocery store. Whether it’s us or them, each side pays exactly the same price.
We only learn from our mistakes, and tariffs are a mistake. I listen to top economists and global financial firms who look at the data and say, “This is the evidence, and this is where the evidence is taking us.” Just like a detective follows the evidence, we must follow the evidence of our own finances. If you want to believe one person is right and everyone else is wrong, as my buddy in law school would say, “It’s your constitutional right.”
Just like it is your “constitutional right” to believe all the lies about tariffs and the job market. For example, “trillions” of dollars have been collected, and the job market is doing great. Your eyes don’t lie. Your checking account doesn’t lie. And if you’re seeing your income drop while prices go up, that’s not a political issue, it’s a financial one.
The Trump Tariffs Have Been Ruled Illegal (For Now)
On Friday, August 29, 2025, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled 7–4 that President Trump’s sweeping tariffs violated the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The court affirmed that the executive branch exceeded its authority, noting that a policy of such “vast economic and political significance” (applying the Major Questions Doctrine) requires clear, explicit authorization from Congress to impose tariffs.
The Trump administration filed an expedited petition, and as comes as no surprise, the Supreme Court agreed to hear the case during its first week of the November session. The Trump administration filed an expedited petition, and the Supreme Court quickly agreed to hear the case, with oral arguments set for November 5, 2025.
This is the same Supreme Court that gave the President the power to do basically anything, and now, that Supreme Court, which has folded one too many times for the President and has legal scholars scratching their heads as well as federal appellate judges, will ultimately decide the fate of the U.S. and global economy. Needless to say, I’m not feeling confident that the Trump tariffs will be illegal for much longer.
Can the U.S. Supreme Court crash the economy? In my opinion, yes!
When Economic Reality Hits Home
This is why it’s so critical to be informed, and whether the Trump tariffs remain illegal is another example. You can’t let politics live rent-free in your head while your wallet is being liberated from its money.
Economic policy, good or bad, has a direct impact on personal finances. A struggling economy, rising prices, and loss of income are the very things that lead people to the brink of financial disaster. And when the bills get too high and the stress becomes too great, maybe then you will realize we are all in this together.
If you’re struggling to make ends meet, that’s not a political statement; it’s a sign of the economy. Your checking account doesn’t lie. If you don’t believe me, write a check for an amount that exceeds your checking account balance. Let me know what happens.
One more thing, in the “old days,” you would be penalized less for that bounced check. That’s a thing of the past. But you can ask these two guys why this happened.
Professor Hernandez is an attorney specializing in consumer finance and debt relief. He is the published author of Consumer Bankruptcy Law (Routledge Publishing) and teaches law and finance courses in both English and Spanish for an international university.
Colleges and universities can purchase my bankruptcy law textbook directly from Routledge Publishing. Paralegals and students who are buying single copies can do so via Amazon Books. To access my YouTube channel, click this link. You can also listen to my podcast on Spotify.
You can learn more about filing for bankruptcy and the bankruptcy petition via this link. Information on the bankruptcy court system, contact information for trustees, and your state’s exemptions can be found here. The federal bankruptcy exemptions are listed here. The latest version of the 341 Meeting of the Creditors can be found here.
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